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Cyphernomicon 17.13

The Future:
"Will cryptography really bring on the Millenium?"


  17.13.1. Yes. And cats will move in with dogs,  Snapple will rain from
            the sky, and P will be shown unequal to NP.
  17.13.2. Seriously, the implications of strong privacy, of
            cyberspatial economies, and of borders becoming transparent
            are enormous. The way governments do business is already
            changing, and this will change things even more dramatically.
            The precise form may be unpredictable, but certain end states
            are fairly easy to predict in broad brush strokes.
  17.13.3. "How do we know the implications of crypto are what I've
            claimed?"
           - We can't know the future.
           - Printing, railroads, electrification
  17.13.4. "When will it all happen? When will strong crypto really
            begin to have a major effect on the economy?"
           + Stages:
             - The Prehistoric Era. Prior to 1975. NSA and other
                intelligence agencies controlled most crypto work.
                Cryptography seen as a hobby. DES just starting to be
                deployed by banks and financial institutions.
             - The Research Era. 1975-1992. Intense interest in public
                key discovery, in various protocols. Start of several
                "Crypto" conferences. Work on digital money, DC-Nets,
                timestamping, etc.
             - The Activism Era. 1992--?? (probably 1998). PGP 2.0
                released. Cypherpunks formed. Clipper announced--meets
                firestorm of protest. EFF, CPSR, EPIC, other groups.
                "Wired" starts publication. Digital Telelphony, other
                bills. Several attempts to start crypto businesses are
                made...most founder.
             - The Transition Era. After about 1999. Businesses start.
                Digital cash needed for Net transactions. Networks and
                computers fast enough to allow more robust protocols. Tax
                havens flourish. "New Underworld Order" (credit to Claire
                Sterling) flourishes.
           - It is premature to expect that the current environment--
              technological and regulatory--will be beneficial to the
              type of strong crypto we favor. Too many pieces are
              missing. Several more advances are needed. A few more
              failures are also needed (gulp!) to show better how not to
              proceed.
  17.13.5. "But will crypto anarchy actually happen?"
           - To a growing extent, it already is happening. Look at the
              so-called illegal markets, the flows of drug money around
              the world, the transfer of billions of dollars a day on
              mere "chop marks," and the thriving trade in banned items.
           - "Grey and black capitalism is already a major component of
              international cash flows....Once adequate user friendly
              software is available, the internet will accellerate this
              already existing trend....Crypto anarchy is merely the
              application of modern tools to assist covert capitalism."
              [James Donald, 1994-08-29]
           - There are arguments that a Great Crackdown is coming, that
              governments will shut down illegal markets, will stop
              strong crypto, will force underground economies
              aboveground. This is doubtful--it's been tried for the past
              several decades (or more). Prohibition merely made crime
              more organized; ditto for the War on (Some) Drugs.
  17.13.6. "Has the point of no return been passed on strong crypto?"
           - Actually, I think that in the U.S. at least, the point was
              passed decades ago, possibly a century or more ago, and
              that any hope of controlling strong crypto and private
              communication evaporated long ago. Abuses by the FBI in
              wiretapping Americans, and reports of NSA monitoring of
              domestic communications notwithstanding, it is
              essentially.....


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